Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.70.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.99.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.35.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.99.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 33.14.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 32.75.
Turkish lira Analysis:
USD/TRY trading volumes declined at the end of last week, with the Turkish lira rising from its all-time low against the dollar following positive reports released over the weekend. The Central Bank of Turkey kept the interest rate at 50% as part of the economic team's plans to return to traditional economic policies since the presidential elections held last year. Also, Turkey has been removed from the FATF grey list after tightening anti-money laundering measures, which could boost the country's attractiveness for foreign investment. Furthermore, this inflow of investment is expected to increase interest in Turkish lira assets and contribute to lower inflation.
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In detail, The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced on Friday that Turkey is no longer subject to further scrutiny after making significant improvements in combating money laundering and terrorist financing. This decision comes after a comprehensive assessment of Turkey's financial regulations and implementation mechanisms. The measures included addressing identified gaps in the supervision of sectors such as banks, gold trading, gemstones, and real estate. The FATF, in a statement, praised these measures as having significantly strengthened financial oversight in the country.
In this regard, Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay expressed optimism about the impact of this development on the economy. He stressed that the decision is likely to lower the country's borrowing costs and increase the pace of foreign capital inflows. Ultimately, a 2021 IMF report found that countries on the FATF grey list experience a significant decline in capital flows.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The USD/TRY exchange rate (USD/TRY) stabilized, recording limited trading ranges during this morning's trading. Clearly, this comes after the pair retreated from its all-time highs recorded last month. Currently, the dollar traded at 33.00 liras. Furthermore, the pair is trading above an upward trend line on the four-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart.
At the same time, the pair is moving around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the four-hour timeframe, reflecting the pair's medium-term divergence. While the pair rose above the MA cross on the daily timeframe, indicating that the upward trend is dominating the overall trend. If the price rises, the pair is expected to target resistance levels at 33.00 and 33.15. On the other hand, if the price falls below these levels, it will target support levels at 32.50 and 32.30. Ultimately, the Turkish lira price forecast is for the price to rise as long as it remains above the upward trend line.
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