Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.25.
- Set a stop-loss order below 32.05.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.59.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.69.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.84.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 32.25.
Turkish lira Analysis:
USD/TRY currency pair stabilized during the morning of Thursday, as the pair traded in the same range it recorded after the inflation data released yesterday.
Latest reports revealed that the Turkish government has updated the salary structure for public sector employees and retirees in the second half of the year. Where civil servants and retirees will see a 19.31% increase in salaries, while pensions are expected to be increased by 24.73%. Moreover, the minimum government employee salary has now been set at 39,177 Turkish liras, and the minimum pension at 17,587 Turkish liras. Consequently, these adjustments reflect a planned 10% increase and an additional increase to offset the 24.73% inflation rate seen in the first half of the year.
These increases have raised some concerns, especially after Turkey's inflation rate fell to 71.6% in June, the first decline in eight months. Recently, this decline was faster than expected and came after the May peak of 75.5%. The central bank's preferred gauge, monthly consumer price growth, was 1.6%. This data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer prices next summer. Analysts had previously forecast June inflation to be 72.6%, with the consumer price growth index expected to rise by 2.2%.
Furthermore, the increase in the minimum wage and the provision of incentives for household natural gas consumption during an earlier period, which were approved as part of the election incentives for Erdogan’s ruling party, have increased inflationary pressures in the country.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY exchange rate stabilized in European trading this morning. The price is trading above strong support levels represented by the upward trend line on the four-hour time frame, as shown in the chart. Also, the 50-moving average on the daily time frame. At the same time, the price moved above the 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, indicating that the upward trend is dominant. Meanwhile, the pair has turned to trade around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the four-hour time frame, indicating the pair's divergence in the medium term. If the pair rises, the pair may target 33.70 and 33.00 levels. On the other hand, if the price falls below support levels, it targets support levels at 32.50 and 32.30. Ultimately, Turkish lira price forecasts include a price rise as long as it remains above the upward trend line
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