Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.25.
- Set a stop-loss order below 32.05.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.59.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.79.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.84.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 32.25.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair maintained its stability during trading last week, for the third week in a row with the price moving in the same range. Recently, the past weeks have witnessed a series of important measures and statements, at the top of which is fixing the interest rate for the third time in a row at 50%. Furthermore, inflation in Turkey also fell to 71%, the first decline in inflation rates in the country since last August.
At the end of last week, investors followed statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who said that inflation has just started to decline and will continue at an accelerating pace. We believe that our program is successful and that the greatest Favor we can do for low-income earners, minimum wage earners and retirees is to permanently reduce inflation to single digits. Recently, despite the increase in risks in our country, the risk rate has decreased 10 times faster than similar countries. And by the end of the day, it is around 263 basis points.
At the same time, Finance Minister Mohamed Simsek said that borrowing interest rates are falling thanks to our program. Investor interest in our country continues to increase. the credit default swap risk premium continues to decline. Also, he added that interest rates are contradicting on treasury bonds with the decline in the risk premium and the decline in inflation expectations and the decline in the interest rate on five-year Turkish lira-denominated foreign bonds by about 1000 basis points compared to March. Meanwhile, the interest rate on dollar-denominated bonds also fell to the lowest in five years, reaching 50 basis points at the end of the first quarter. With the improvement of our financial indicators, our goal for next year is to strengthen the process of reducing interest rates and inflation, which will enhance the positive confidence of public finances.
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Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, The USD/TRY exchange rate maintained its stability during trading at the beginning of the week. With the price stabilizing above the upward trend line on the four-hour time frame, as shown in the chart. Also, the price is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily time frame, indicating the dominance of the upward trend in the long term. While the pair turned to trade around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the four-hour time frame, indicating the divergence of the pair in the medium term. If the pair rises, it may target levels of 33.70 and 33.00. On the other hand, if the price falls below support levels, it will target support levels at 32.50 and 32.30. Turkish lira price expectations include a rise in price as long as it remains stable above the upward trend line.
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