My previous signal on 6th August was not triggered, as the price did not make a bullish bounce when it first reached the support level at $0.6465.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6611, $0.6633, or $0.6660.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6565, $0.6512, or $0.6465.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast one week ago that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking likely to consolidate over the short term. This was not really a good call as the price rose with quite steady swings over the next 24 hours.
The price continued to rise over much of the past week, printing new higher support levels, but over the past couple of days has started to just consolidate above the key support level at $0.6565.
Market conditions support a stronger Aussie, but the outlook for the US Dollar is less clear. The greenback is in a long-term bearish trend, but the US Dollar Index bounced off a very crucial supportive area last week, so it may not be able to fall much further over the near term, which would mean rises in any USD currency pairs would need great strength in the other currency to be meaningful. Here, we also see several resistance levels close to the current price, which will likely also make a major rise difficult to achieve.
It seems clear the support level at $0.6565 looks likely to be pivotal today, and due to the recent bullishness, I will take a long trade if we get a bounce off this level later. I will be conservative with taking profits.
If the price can get established above $0.6611, that will be a sign of increasing bullishness.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.
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