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BTC/USD Forecast: Questions of Risk Appetite

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The Bitcoin market initially rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday but continues to struggle with the crucial 50 day EMA.
  • The 50 day EMA indicator, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to.
  • The fact that we are currently stuck between the 50 day EMA indicator above and the 200 day EMA indicator underneath does suggest that perhaps we are in a situation where we are going to see a lot of back and forth and sideways action as traders don't really know what to do.

The market has recently rallied pretty significantly from the $50,000 level after that major flash crash in risk assets a couple of weeks ago. And now it looks like we are trying to digest some of those gains. That being said, one thing that I cannot ignore at this point in time is that since we have the ETF all time high close to the $74,000 level, each successive swing high has been lower.

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Volatility Continues

That's something that is very difficult to ignore. That doesn't necessarily mean anything yet because overall we are somewhat sideways, close attention to. If we were to break down below the $50,000 level, I think the floor in this market comes completely out from underneath it and we plunge. In the meantime, though, I would postulate that Wall Street likes its new toy, and it won't let it fall apart quite yet. They will let bag holders take their losses eventually, but right now they're in the process of trying to stabilize the idea of having an ETF out there that follows Bitcoin.

BTC/USD Forecast Today 15/8: Risk Appetite Questions (graph)

The Bitcoin market has had a couple of major influences recently with Mount Gox dumping all of its coins into the markets for traders due to the settlement. And then of course, Germany dumped its supply as well. So, the fact that we're even up in this area is a fairly bullish sign, but I don't think we're out of the woods quite yet.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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