Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 55,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 55,000.
The BTC/USD currency pair pulled back and moved below the key support at $60,000 as the focus shifted to the upcoming US inflation report, which could have an impact on the Federal Reserve.
Bitcoin was trading at 58,500 on Monday morning, much higher than last week’s low of 49,000 but lower than Thursday’s high of 62,800.
The coin’s price action has mirrored that of American stocks as the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 indices bounced back from their Monday’s close. However, the top indices only rose by a small margin on Friday.
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The next key catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could have some impact on the Federal Reserve. Economists see the data showing that inflation rose slightly in July, mostly because of the services sector.
A small inflation increase will not deter the Fed’s goal to start cutting interest rates in its September meeting. That’s because the bank is now focusing on the deteriorating labor market as the unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%.
Bitcoin and other risky assets do well when the Fed is slashing rates. For example, most of them rallied as the Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero during the Covid-19 pandemic. They also retreated as the bank hiked in 2023.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin rallied and reached a record high of $73,730 in March this year. Since then, it has formed a series of higher lows and lower lows, with the most important highs being at $72,000 and $70,000. In price action analysis, this formation mostly leads to more downside.
Most importantly, Bitcoin has formed a death cross as the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) have made a bearish crossover. In most cases, this pattern usually leads to more downside.
On the positive side, the death cross is yet to form on other types of moving averages like the EMA and the VWMA that are seen as more accurate.
Also, Bitcoin is forming a bullish flag pattern and a falling broadening wedge. Therefore, the outlook for Bitcoin is bearish, with the next point to watch being at $55,000. Alternatively, it could bounce back and retest the key support at 60,000.
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