Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 65,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 57,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 57,000.
- Add a take-profit at 64,000.
Bitcoin joined American stocks in bouncing back after the Fed published dovish minutes of the last meeting. The BTC/USD pair rose to the important resistance point at 62,000 as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 indices rose and the US dollar index pulled back.
These minutes showed that some of the Fed’s members supported cutting interest rates in the July meeting. Most of them agreed to wait for more data to confirm that the US economy was slowing.
Therefore, investors have already priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the next meeting, which will happen in September. Jerome Powell and other Fed officials are expected to confirm this view when they speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
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Bitcoin and other risky assets do well when the Fed and other central banks are cutting rates. They all surged when the bank slashed interest rates during the Covid pandemic.
Bitcoin has also held steady as the spot ETF continued seeing inflows. Recent data showed that companies like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have invested in these ETFs.
BTC/USD technical analysis
Bitcoin dropped sharply earlier this month as concerns about the unwinding of the Japanese yen continued. At the time, the coin crashed to a low of $49,135 while other altcoins did worse.
The BTC/USD pair then bounced back and reached a high of 62,000, 25% above its lowest point this month. It has been in a consolidation phase since then as its volume in the spot and futures market has retreated.
Bitcoin was hovering at the 50-day moving average while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the neutral level at 50. It has also been forming a small bullish pennant chart pattern.
The chart also shows that Bitcoin has been forming a series of lower lows and lower highs since peaking at over 73,000 in March. The higher side was at 73,000, 72,000, and 70,000.
It has also formed a broadening wedge chart pattern, which is a popular bullish sign. Therefore, the BTC/USD pair will likely have a bullish breakout in the coming days. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at 65,000. The stop-loss of this trade will be at 57,000.
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