My previous EUR/USD signal on 30th July was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the resistance level identified at $1.0826 was first reached that day.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades must be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0945, $1.0998, or $1.1030.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0903, $1.0870, or $1.0843.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD forecast on 30th July, I wrote that although the technical picture looked bearish, the support levels just below $1.0800 looked strong. This was a good call as the price did spend some time inching lower, but since then it has spent very little time below $1.0800.
The bearish action continued until last Friday’s notably weaker than expected Average Earnings and Non-Farm Payrolls data were released, which sent the markets into a dovish tilt. This knocked the value of the US Dollar and allowed the price here to rise to briefly trade at a new long-term high above the big round number at $1.1000. However, since then, the price has pulled back, but has found support at $1.0900. I think this round number is currently very likely to be highly pivotal.
This pair is also in a bullish long-term trend, although the US Dollar Index is not far from a confluence of support, which is something Dollar bears must watch out for.
I am happy to enter a new long trade after any bullish bounce we might get today at $1.0903.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the EUR. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Unemployment Claims data at 3pm.
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