- It's easy to see that the 1.13 level is an area that a lot of people are paying attention to.
- In fact, we managed to dip below there, but then turned around to show signs of life.
It's probably worth noting that the 200-day EMA sits right around here as well. And as that is the case, I think it does make a certain amount of sense that perhaps value hunters come back into the market. I can also make a bit of an argument for an uptrend line that has just been tested, so it all ties together quite nicely. Whether or not the market can continue to go to the upside, the 1.14 level above could be a short-term target right along with the 50-day EMA.
If we can break above there, then the 1.15 level then comes into the picture. Remember, you get paid to hang on to this pair. The interest rate differential is wide enough to drive a truck through. And even though we have a Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday, the reality is that even if they were to cut rates, it's nowhere near enough to make up for the carry trade that is going to appear in this pair.
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If the BoE Cuts, the SNB Will More likely Than Not Follow Suit
Quite frankly, I think if the British cut rates, you're probably going to see the Swiss do the same down the road. I am bullish. I also recognize that this is a market that's extraordinarily volatile, so I don't put huge positions in it. I put in enough to make the swap payments worthwhile, but not so much that getting stopped out causes a lot of pain. I collect the payments over time, and eventually you end up making a profit one way or the other.
All of this being said, I would expect a lot of noise in this pair over the next few days, and therefore you need to be very patient in that timeframe. The pound will continue to offer more interest than the franc, as we see such a huge difference.
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