- The British Pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise against the Swiss Franc all things being equal.
- This is a pair that typically moves on risk appetite and therefore the market will be paying attention to other types of markets around the world such as gold or European indices or the US dollar, things like that to give you an idea of how the world's feeling right now.
- It looks like we're a bit confused as it is worth noting that the 1.12 level above is a bit of a fulcrum for price.
It does look like we are trying to get back there. If we can break above there, then we could challenge the 50 day EMA. This happens to be one of my favorite carry trade currency pairs.
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But at the moment, although we've had a nice significant bounce, now it looks like we are trying to work off some of that froth. And then the question becomes what happens next. So, we are essentially in a tight range of about 75 pips that could determine the next several handles. If we break higher, then I think the market not only tests the 50 day EMA, but it probably goes looking to the 1.15 level. This is an area that I think could be a bit of a barrier for buyers, so keep this in mind.
If we break down perhaps below the 1.11 level, then we could see the British panel drop down to the 1.09 level. GBP/CHF is a very volatile pair. And like I said, it is typically driven by risk appetite. So, keep an eye on the rest of the world and see whether or not the riskier assets are doing fairly well. If they are, that generally bodes well for this pair.
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