- The US Dollar has declined significantly against other major currencies following the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, allowing bulls to drive the GBP/USD currency pair towards the resistance level of 1.3120, its highest level since July 2023.
- Currently, it is stabilizing around 1.3085 at the start of trading on Thursday.
- Furthermore, its strong gains are due to the weakness of the US dollar as investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut US interest rates more aggressively this year.
- According to reliable trading platforms, the US Dollar has declined with growing expectations of interest rate cuts, driving the US Dollar Index to its lowest level in 2024.
At the same time, the UK economy showed strong growth in the second quarter, rebounding from a mild recession last year. However, public sector borrowing in July reached £3.101 billion ($4.04 billion), the highest for that month since 2021, highlighting the financial challenges facing the new finance minister. On another front, investors are also monitoring insights from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
According to stock trading platforms, British stocks have stabilized. According to trading data, the FTSE 100 index of British shares was largely unchanged on Wednesday, after falling 1% the previous day. Mining stocks led the gains, with shares of Rio Tinto, Fresnillo, Glencore, and Anglo American rising by more than 1%. Also, shares of the sports betting giant Entain rose by more than 1.5%.
However, AstraZeneca shares fell by more than 0.5%, and the two oil giants Shell and BP suffered losses. New data showed that UK public sector borrowing reached £3.1 billion in July, exceeding expectations and increasing by £1.8 billion from the previous year. This borrowing figure exceeded expectations and was £4.7 billion higher than previous forecasts.
Also, the performance of the GBP/USD currency pair was affected by the content of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. Likewise, many Federal Reserve officials acknowledged that a case could be made for cutting US interest rates before the central bank's policy committee voted unanimously to keep rates unchanged.
The meeting minutes, released on Wednesday in Washington, added: "Several noted that the recent progress on inflation and the increase in the unemployment rate provided a reasonable case for reducing the target range by 25 basis points at this meeting or that they might have supported such a decision. A large majority noted that if incoming data evolved as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
The meeting record highlights a growing sense among policymakers that the risks to achieving the goals of inflation and employment are now roughly balanced, even with borrowing costs remaining at their highest levels in two decades. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a press conference on July 31 that the committee is looking for "greater confidence" that inflation is moving towards its 2% target before starting to cut rates.
The minutes added: "A majority of participants noted that the risks to the employment objective had increased, and several participants noted that the risks to the inflation objective had decreased." Added, “Some participants noted the risk that further gradual easing in labor market conditions could translate into a more serious deterioration."
Overall, the discussion indicates that the committee has begun to shift towards a risk management approach regarding the labor market. Meanwhile, a 25-basis point cut in September would represent a small adjustment towards normalization, many analysts say the Fed needs to move at a faster pace of cuts to ensure a soft landing for the US economy.
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Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:
According to the performance on the daily chart below, the price of the British pound against the US dollar GBP/USD is on a strong upward path. Also, its gains above the resistance of 1.3100 are enough to push the technical indicators towards strong overbought levels. As result, It is better to sell the GBP/USD pair from the resistance levels of 1.3130 and 1.3200 respectively without risk. On the other hand, and in the same time frame, returning towards the support level of 1.2880 will be important for the bears to regain control of the trend. Today, the GBP/USD pair will react with the announcement of the readings of the purchasing managers index for the manufacturing and services sectors for both Britain and the United States of America. Also, the statements of the Governor of the US Federal Reserve Bank on Friday.
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