- At the start of trading on Thursday, the price of gold jumped towards the resistance level of $2,458 per ounce.
- It is remaining relatively close to the record high of $2,470 on July 16, supported by expectations of a more flexible monetary policy in the United States and new demand for safe assets.
- For its part, the Federal Reserve left US interest rates unchanged, as markets largely expected, and indicated that recent economic developments are consistent with those that justify less restrictive interest rates, including progress in moderating consumer prices and a weak labor market.
- Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity costs of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets, which increases their prices.
Influencing the gold market, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to 4.11% on Wednesday, its lowest in more than four months, as financial markets assessed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at a range of 5.25%-5.5%, as widely expected, and indicated that it sees risks to both sides of its mandate to stabilize prices and maintain optimal employment, acknowledging that the labor market has cooled from its previous strong level. However, the forward guidance portion of the decision remained unchanged from previous meetings and refrained from signaling a rate cut this quarter.
Overall, the market continues to fully price in a rate cut at the September meeting ahead of two more 25 basis point cuts this year.
On the fiscal side, the US Treasury left its guidance on long-term debt unchanged for the second quarter to maintain its preference for short-term bonds. Treasury Secretary Yellen cited the goal of suppressing yields, though Republican opposition challenged the political goals.
Another factor weighing on the gold market, the dollar index rose to 104 after briefly rising above 104.3 on Wednesday afternoon, as traders digested the latest FOMC decision, with the Fed signaling that its first-rate cut is imminent. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady as expected and noted that inflation has eased and is moving closer to its target, though it remains elevated.
During his regular press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed needs to see more good data and that no decision has been made on future meetings, including September, yet. However, Powell said a September cut could be on the table if inflation falls in line with expectations and that he could envision scenarios where the Fed could cut rates multiple times this year.
Meanwhile, recent labor market indicators including the ADP report and Q2 employment costs have pointed to a slowdown in the labor market. Consequently, the US dollar lost the most against the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and unveiled a plan to slow its bond-buying program.
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Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
The overall trend for gold prices remains bullish and is gaining strength. With global geopolitical tensions rising and the US dollar weakening, the path may be paved for a move towards the next historical psychological resistance of $2,500 per ounce if bulls succeed in moving towards the resistance of $2,470 per ounce first. Finally, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.
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