- Natural gas looks as if it is continuing to try to fight, perhaps finding enough support to turn things around and rally again.
- The early hours on Monday certainly have been very strong as we continue to hang around the $2.30 level overall, but I also recognize that we have a lot of technical resistance just above, and of course natural gas is always a bit slippery when it comes to trying to get your hands around it.
Technical Analysis
It’s important to notice that the last couple of candlesticks have produced shooting stars on the daily chart, so that does suggest that we have a lot of selling pressure above. This isn’t to say that the market can’t go higher, it’s just that there is obviously a lot of volatility and fighting going on at the moment. With that being the case, I think you got a situation where you have to pay close attention to the $2.40 level, which is also where we have the 200-Day EMA. The 200-Day EMA of course is a major indicator that a lot of technical traders will pay close attention to, and with that being the case it makes a certain amount of sense that we will continue to react to it.
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However, if we were to break above the 200-Day EMA, it opens up the possibility of a move to the $2.50 level. The $2.50 level courses a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and is an area that a lot of people will be paying attention to as well. That being said, think you have got a situation where the market will be very noisy, and therefore I think you need to be cautious about your position size. Short-term pullbacks make a lot of sense, especially to the $2.25 level.
As for myself, I am bullish of this market over the longer-term, but I think of that as an investment, not a short-term trade. In other words, I am buying ETF positions so that I can avoid the leverage. If you do not have that ability, you can buy small CFD positions, but you need to understand that this is a cyclical trade, which means we will rise in price as people start to focus on cooler temperatures in the United States. This is something that happens every year, but quite frankly it’s hard to times so I just put a small portion of my portfolio in this market in mid to late summer and simply click prices after the first major spike.
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