The NZD/USD has moved lower in the wake of the interest rate cut by the RBNZ which was widely anticipated by financial institutions and now opens the door to more speculation.
- The NZD/USD exchange rate is near the 0.60166 ratio as of this writing, this morning’s early high was around the 0.60835 vicinity which touched values last seen on the 18th of July.
- The fall in the NZD/USD took place in the midst of the interest rate cut announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand which was widely anticipated.
- The move lower should now become a focal point for commercial enterprises and speculators as they ponder the coming direction of the New Zealand Dollar.
The RBNZ decision to cut its Official Cash Rate by 0.25% should have surprised no one. The central bank said last month the intention was to begin acting on data which showed lackluster growth and an erosion of inflation. The move downwards this morning also may have looked big to day traders, but taken via a mid-term perspective the NZD/USD has simply moved to the middle ground of its three month technical chart. The ability to remain over the 0.60000 this morning is noteworthy.
Top Forex Brokers
NZD/USD
Perhaps some financial institutions and large players were hoping for a bigger rate cut of 0.50%, but this was not likely due to the rather conservative nature the RBNZ has taken on lately. Like most central banks, including the U.S Federal Reserve, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand often proves to be more passive than pro-active. Intriguingly, the U.S central bank is now in a position in which it is widely expected to cut the Federal Funds Rate in September. Is this the reason the NZD/USD has held firmly above the 0.60000 for the moment?
Certainly all trading conditions can change in the blink of an eye; traders need to always be cautious particularly when they are making short-term bets. The U.S will produce crucial inflation data today via the Consumer Price Index, but already yesterday’s PPI numbers came in below expectations. But like the RBNZ it is unlikely the Fed is going to cut by 0.50% in September, unless economic data begins to come in very weak. However, the potential and expectation that another Fed rate cut will come in November is a solid notion. The NZD/USD is certainly being affected by the USD centric attitudes of financial institutions.
Short-Term Wagers and More Volatility
NZD/USD saw plenty of price velocity this morning and will see more later via the U.S CPI results. Short-term traders should be cautious regarding their wagers and look for quick hitting moves that are using solid risk management. Mid-term speculators of the NZD/USD may be leaning towards a belief the NZD/USD is slightly oversold.
- Yes, economic conditions remain challenging in New Zealand, but the nation is transparent fiscally.
- If the NZD/USD can remain above the 0.60000 this will be important, and if it continues to fight above the 0.61000 level before the U.S CPI numbers and actually challenges the 0.62000 mark it will show speculative forces are positioning before the important U.S inflation report.
- Expect volatility over the next 24 hours in the NZD/USD.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.60190
Current Support: 0.60120
High Target: 0.60550
Low Target: 0.59960
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Check out the most trusted forex brokers NZ worth using.