- At the beginning of this week, the USD/JPY currency pair rose, surpassing the 148.00 resistance level amid thin trading volumes as Japanese markets were closed due to a holiday.
- The Japanese yen hovered near its one-week low as the dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected US economic data, prompting traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Last week, the Japanese yen rose to a seven-month high against the dollar as the Bank of Japan’s hawkish shift led to a rapid unwinding of yen-denominated carry trades. Furthermore, the move fueled fears of a US recession and bets on further rate cuts by the Fed. However, sentiment has since stabilized, with Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida saying the BOJ would not raise interest rates when the market is unstable. Meanwhile, a summary of views from the Bank of Japan’s July policy meeting revealed that some members called for interest rate hikes to continue, with one suggesting they should eventually be raised to at least 1%.
According to Forex Markets, the US Dollar steadies ahead of inflation data. On Monday, the US dollar index DXY held steady at 103.1 as investors look ahead to key inflation data this week for confirmation that price growth is continuing to stabilize. Today “Tuesday”, US producer inflation data is due, followed by consumer inflation on Wednesday. Additionally, US retail sales figures are due on Thursday.
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Last week, the US dollar fell to a seven-month low after a weak July jobs report sparked recession fears in the US, with markets speculating on an emergency cut by the Federal Reserve. Also, a stronger yen fueled by government intervention and interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan exacerbated the dollar’s slide. However, sentiment has since stabilized as subsequent US economic data eased fears of a slowdown, causing the dollar to recover most of the losses it suffered last week.
Also, markets have eased bets on a Fed rate cut. Although, the expectations for more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year remain intact.
USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today
Based on the daily chart below, the USD/JPY currency pair is attempting to break out of a steep downtrend that pushed it towards its 2024 low. Technically, a successful break above the psychological resistance of 150.00 will be crucial for initiating a reversal of the recent bearish trend. Clearly, the price of the US dollar against the Japanese yen will continue to react to the course of global central bank policies and investor risk appetite. Overall, the most prominent support levels for the currency pair are currently 143.65 and 142.00, respectively.
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