The important 19.00000 is now being challenged in the USD/MXN after the currency pair has sustained near-term bearish momentum following a strong bullish run upwards.
- The USD/MXN pair this morning is testing the key 19.00000 ratio.
- The currency pair has produced violent results since early June, but last week’s early volatility which took the USD/MXN above the 20.00000 level likely caught many financial institutions and larger traders by surprise.
- Day traders pursuing the USD/MXN have certainly been tested, but the bearish trend created since the highs seen on the 5th of August have hopefully provided some relief.
Now that the USD/MXN has returned to the lower elements of its near-term range, traders have questions regarding the currency pair’s direction after many days and weeks of volatile conditions which have caused emotional tests. The 19.00000 being touched at this moment may still look overbought to many speculators, but financial institutions may be using the current value as equilibrium. Yet, more tests are coming and they are coming today and tomorrow.
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USD/MXN Correlations to U.S Economic Data
Lows seen last Friday around the 18.80000 vicinity touched depths seen on the 1st of August. But the value of the USD/MXN regarding downwards momentum still faces headwinds because of concerns regarding the incoming Mexican government which could prove to be very populists if unchecked. However, even as domestic worries linger the USD/MXN still correlates to the USD quite well. And today and tomorrow crucial inflation data will come from the U.S which will cause nervous trading in Forex and the USD/MXN.
PPI data today and CPI results tomorrow will create the potential for more price velocity in the USD/MXN. If U.S inflation results that are coming prove to be weaker than expected the USD/MXN could see some more movement lower. However, if tomorrow Consumer Price Index is stronger than expected this could create more nervous buying. The question some speculators may be asking is if the USD/MXN is still in overbought territory no matter what the U.S economic data outcomes prove to be. Speculators may still believe the 18.90000 level is a legitimate target.
Behavior Sentiment and Betting Against the Trend
The USD/MXN remains in the upper levels of its one and three month technical charts. The currency pair is unlikely to reexamine its depths seen before Mexico’s election results of May anytime soon, but some large traders may believe the 18.0000 to 19.00000 could be the testing ground for the USD/MXN which is most likely. They may view prices above the 19.10000 level as overbought in the USD/MXN.
- However for day traders these large value ranges are difficult to wager on.
- Retail traders with limited money need to focus on conservative movements and not being overly ambitious.
- The USD/MXN will react today and tomorrow to the U.S inflation results.
- If inflation proves weaker after the CPI numbers tomorrow the currency pair could trend lower.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.04400
Current Support: 18.98800
High Target: 19.12100
Low Target: 18.84700
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