The USD/MXN has demonstrated a solid amount of bearishness, as it has reversed in a steady fashion and has correlated with the global Forex market as optimism grows about the Fed becoming dovish.
- The USD/MXN exchange rate early last week fought off reversals higher which pushed the currency pair back above the 19.00000 level.
- The bearish trajectory which has now become sustained started on the 5th of August, this after an early global market scare that day which caused risk adverse traders to buy the USD in large amounts.
- But by the 8th of August the 19.00000 level began to be challenged lower again as financial institutions clearly believed the USD/MXN had been overbought.
Last week’s early nervousness likely focused on the prospect of potentially dangerous inflation data from the U.S. Perhaps financial institutions worried about a frequently seen outcome from CPI and PPI data this year, in which the numbers continuously showed stubborn prices. However, last week’s U.S inflation numbers were positive because they did come in weaker than anticipated. And on Wednesday of last week the USD/MXN waved goodbye to the 19.00000 level and began to track lower with power.
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Shift in Sentiment and Near-Term Behavior
Trading houses have certainly had to deal with a large amount of nervousness this month, but assets including Forex became more calm last week and the USD/MXN by Friday touched the 18.59145 vicinity, a ratio it last traded on the 1st of August. Technically the USD/MXN has returned to an important juncture which was traded in the last week of July. As of this writing the USD/MXN is around 18.67700 with fast results flourishing.
Importantly for speculative consideration the slight reversal higher being seen has not been significant, the USD/MXN remains within the lower near-term price realms taking into consideration its higher ground traded the past couple of weeks. Yet, the USD/MXN also is still around prices achieved in the wake of the Mexican election in early June. The price of the currency pair rocketed higher in the first week of June and by the middle of that month, the USD/MXN was essentially trading within the territory it now is traversing. Which means traders may believe this lower range is where decisions have to be made regarding equilibrium. The coming days in the USD/MXN should be monitored.
Temptation of Wagering on Lower Momentum
Although the USD/MXN has produced a polite downturn, it has correlated to the global Forex market which has seen many major currencies gain strength against the USD. The ability of the USD/MXN to move within the lower end of its two month range is a good sign, but a move below the 18.50000 level may be the signal some traders are looking towards as being significant, and it may not happen so quickly.
- The U.S Fed will release its FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday and Jackson Hole Symposium meetings start this Thursday.
- Traders should expect choppy conditions leading up until the middle of this week.
- If the USD/MXN can break below the 18.600000 level and sustain values beneath this would be a solid bearish signal, but day traders should remain realistic and look for quick hitting targets in the short-term.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.70300
Current Support: 18.66350
High Target: 18.74900
Low Target: 18.61100
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