The USD/MXN has experienced another huge dose of upwards momentum in early trading this morning, momentarily surpassing the 20.00000 level.
- Hopefully traders who believed the USD/MXN currency pair was too high early last week, reconsidered their perspectives and decided to not test the most recent trend upwards in the currency pair which has been demonstrated in a solid manner since 23rd of July.
- The USD/MXN this morning climbed above the 20.00000 momentarily and as of this writing remains within shouting distance around the 19.81000 ratio with super quick fluctuations being demonstrated.
The violence higher in the USD/MXN since last Thursday was strong and likely began to crush day traders who were fighting the trend. The low on Thursday in the USD/MXN was around the 18.41325 mark. However, the currency pair then began to climb higher and on Friday the 19.20000 level was being tested upwards.
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USD/MXN False Narrative Dangers and U.S Economic Data
On Friday when the U.S jobs reports came in much weaker than anticipated the USD/MXN did not suddenly sell off. The currency pair went into this past weekend still testing highs seen in March 2023. This morning’s bull rush higher which has sent the USD/MXN to stronger realms is now within territory last seen in December of 2022.
The notion the USD/MXN should have sold off and created some bearish traction on Friday after the U.S jobs reports didn’t take hold. The idea that the U.S Federal Reserve will now need to lower the Federal Funds Rate has had little to no effect on the USD/MXN on the surface. Traders should beware of false narratives trying to explain the relentless bullish trajectory of the USD/MXN. Some may point to the nervous Asian equity markets, particularly in Japan via the brutal downturn in the Nikkei 225, but whether this is correct still remains unanswered.
The 20.00000 USD/MXN Level and Consideration
While open questions persist fundamentally regarding the march to new highs in the USD/MXN, traders are facing dynamics which will have to be dealt with psychologically as the 20.00000 mark hovers nearby. The ability to touch the 20.00000 in early trading this morning and create dangerous price velocity doesn’t mean that day traders should now step in and start wagering against the trend. The movement upwards in the USD/MXN the past week and a half has been demonstrated clearly.
- Perhaps today’s buying action shows that we are near the top psychologically and a reversal will start to develop.
- But as long as the 20.00000 ratio is within sight it will remain an important reminder of the sudden speed the USD/MXN has created upwards since the Morena political party of Mexico gained more populist power in early June.
- Financial institutions appear to remain nervous.
- And now day traders need to wonder when large players will believe equilibrium has been attained in the currency pair.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.85000
Current Support: 19.76475
High Target: 19.95500
Low Target: 19.69910
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