- In my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, the USD/PHP currency pair continues to be a bit lackluster.
- The asset has dropped to the 56 PHP level, creating a situation where market participants are questioning whether the US dollar will recover overall.
- The US dollar has shown some strength during the trading session against other currencies.
- Because of this, the Philippine peso seems to be a bit of an outlier.
Technical Analysis
The US dollar has been negative against the Philippine peso for quite some time, and it’s probably worth noting that the 50-Day EMA is breaking white drastically to the downside, and it looks like we are getting ready to reach toward the 200-Day EMA. The Relative Strength Index is in the oversold position, and therefore it is possible that we could see a little bit of a bounce, but it’s also worth noting that we have been oversold during the massive selloff previously, so therefore I only read so much into it.
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A lot of this will come down to where people believe that the Federal Reserve window between now and the end of the year. At this point, people are expecting to see the Federal Reserve cut rates, but the question is how far will they cut them? It’s also worth noting that growth in certain parts of Asia is still rather strong. The Philippines happens to be one of those places, as the market has recently seen a GDP figure of 6.3% year-over-year. Because of this, it does make the Philippine somewhat attractive, but if we get some type of global problem with the financial system, this pair will shoot straight up in the air because quite frankly, we need stability to invest in a place like the Philippines. That being said, we are a bit stretched at this point, I think we’ve got a situation where a bounce could happen, but really at this point in time it seems like the market is still a bit precarious.
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