USD/ZAR Monthly Forecast: September 2024

• August has proven to be an optimistic month for the South African Rand.
• The USD/ZAR has been able to establish a correlation to the broad Forex market which has seen major currencies, including the Rand, gain against weaker USD centric sentiment.
• The current market value of the USD/ZAR is near the 17.71900 mark with quick price action being demonstrated.
• A low seen on Monday near the 17.61550 vicinity occurred in the aftermath of more selling being seen in the wake caused by U.S Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish interest rate comments on Friday the 23^rd of August.

Remarkably the USD/ZAR has taken on a healthy trading perspective in a more optimistic fashion as the coalition government in South Africa shows the ability to work together. Yes, there are certainly disagreements still regarding certain policies, but financial institutions are slowly turning confident about the potential of more transparency and the expressed desire to tackle lingering domestic issues regarding the economy. Not everything is paradise in South Africa, but the positive outlook of financial institutions in the nation is helping bearish sentiment for the USD/ZAR sustain.

USD/ZAR and September Outlook

The USD/ZAR was trading around the 18.20000 level when August began. Yes, there was a spike higher on the 5^th of August, this in the wake of global market confusion being caused by nervous trading in Japan. However, the USD/ZAR recovered and began to reverse lower from the spike which touched the 18.68000 vicinity, and by Monday the 12^th of August was testing the 18.20000 level again.

The incremental selling of the USD/ZAR since the second week of August has been solid and bearish traders who have been looking for downwards momentum to build have been rewarded. On the 15^th of August the USD/ZAR began to test 18.00000 and penetrated the support level.  Lower price action developed and the USD/ZAR showed signs of dancing in step with other major currencies teamed against the USD.  As September approaches the ability of the USD/ZAR to show bearish sustained lows is intriguing for speculators.

Nervousness Turned into Firm Optimism for the USD/ZAR

Like the broad Forex market the USD/ZAR showed some nervousness leading up to Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech on the 23^rd of August with choppiness, but importantly even as the USD/ZAR sometimes reversed higher it still was able to demonstrate calm trading. There were no violent reversals higher and resistance proved durable around the 18.02000 ratio.

• After the Powell speech the USD/ZAR received a solid dose of confirmed selling via the notion the Fed will pursue a lower Federal Funds Rate.
• The question now for USD/ZAR traders is where equilibrium will be sustained until the next big impetus push from USD centric developments.
• The current values of the USD/ZAR may look low to some speculators and the price range which develops in the coming weeks will be a solid barometer regarding South African financial institutions.
• Values from early August and late July of 2023 are being tested now.

Top Forex Brokers

1

Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Read Review

USD/ZAR Outlook for September 2024:

Speculative price range for USD/ZAR is 17.41000 to 18.12000

The USD/ZAR has traded at lower values in the past. Technical traders will have to pull out long-term charts for a perspective into the potential lower realms the USD/ZAR could traverse. However, for this to happen with velocity the currency pair and broad Forex market will need additional impetus in order to want to sell the USD more. Economic data from the U.S will need to come in near or below expectations and the U.S Fed will have to offer hints that another interest rate hike will occur in November and beyond.

A September Fed interest rate cut has certainly been priced into Forex and some will argue a November cut has been priced in too, meaning that the lower realms the USD/ZAR are now trading may be considered a bit oversold and cause choppiness for the next couple of weeks. If the USD/ZAR is able to establish values below the 17.70000 level in a sustained manner and the U.S produces more lackluster economic data, the USD/ZAR could certainly test lower realms. Traders looking for upside to develop via reversals occasionally cannot be blamed, but these movements may be limited and not traverse too far unless there is sudden bad news developments globally.

Ready to trade our monthly forecast? Here are the best Forex brokers with ZAR accounts to choose from.