- In my daily analysis of minor forex pairs, the AUD/NZD the pair looks very interesting, because we have seen the Australian dollar try to rally a bit during the early hours on Thursday but gave back gains as we approached the 200-Day EMA.
- With that being the case, it’s very likely that we continue to see a lot of choppy and noisy behavior.
Keep in mind that these 2 currencies are highly interconnected, especially considering that the New Zealand and Australian economies are so highly correlated. They are each other’s most common trading partner, so this pair does tend to behave a bit like the EUR/GBP pair, or perhaps the EUR/CHF pair in the sense that there is a lot of commercial noise in the pair. However, occasionally we will see a major shift in attitude, and that of course is something worth paying attention to.
Recently, it’s been all about the New Zealand dollar
Recently, we have seen the pair fall, dropping in favor of the New Zealand dollar to reach the 1.08 level. The 1.08 level is an area that we have seen a lot of action at previously, so it would not be a surprise to market participants tried to defend this region. That being said, if we were to break down below this area then we could see a drop down to the 1.0650 level.
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That being the case, it’s interesting that the Thursday session initially started off as being very positive, but then we started falling again to form a bit of an inverted hammer. I suspect that in the next couple of days we will probably see some type of resolution to the tension that this pair currently has, but I believe that it will take a move above the 1.0920 level to get the buyers somewhat aggressive. All things being equal, one would have to assume that the sellers are still very much in control, perhaps due to the fact that the New Zealand economy seems to be doing much better than the Australian economy.
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