My previous signal on 4th September produced a profitable short trade from the bearish pin bar which rejected the resistance level I had identified at $0.6739.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6719, $0.6751, or $0.6757.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6674 or $0.6601.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 4th September that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking bearish due to prevailing risk-off market sentiment, so I was looking for a short trade from a bearish reversal. This was a good call, as the bearish reversal intraday from the high did produce a profitable short trade.
This currency pair continued to trend lower until yesterday’s US CPI (inflation) data release, which showed that Core CPI was a little higher than expected, leading to a reassessment downwards of expectation for Fed rate cuts over the near term. Although this boosted the US Dollar a bit, it hasn’t stopped this pair rising, due to stronger performances by global stock markets, which tend to drag the Aussie along with it.
The question for bulls is now much further will the current move go? There is an initial sign it is running out of steam despite printing new key support at $0.6674. It also might be that there is a new key resistance level forming just above the current price.
As a rule of thumb, we can say that while the price remains above $0.6674 today, look for intraday long trade. If the price gets established below that level, look for short trades.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of PPI and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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