My previous signal on 12th September was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6817, $0.6877, or $0.6895.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6731, $0.6693, or $0.6601.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD to USD forecast on 12th September that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking bullish above $0.6674 but that the rise might run out of steam. This was a good call, as the price rose over the day.
The technical picture now is even more bullish, following the US Federal Reserve’s dovish tilt announced yesterday by a 0.50% rate cut and a signalling of intent to cut rates by a further 0.50% before the end of 2024. This has boosted risk sentiment, driving stock markets higher, and this in turn is pulling up the Aussie as a key risk-on currency.
The price briefly traded at a new 3-week high after the Fed release yesterday before making a strong bearish retracement, but the price is now rising again, with strong and consistent momentum. The price now looks likely to test the new resistance level at $0.6817, and this could be today’s pivotal point, as longer-term highs will be reached if the price gets just a few pips above this level.
I see the best strategy to take in this currency pair today as entering a long trade if we get two consecutive higher hourly candlesticks closing above $0.6817 later today, with no significant upper wicks.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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