My previous signal on 13th August was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6790, $0.6877, or $0.6895.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6751, $0.6726, or $0.6709.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 13th August that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking likely to treat the support level at $0.6565 as pivotal today. I was wrong about that. I was also wrong about the price trading above $0.6611 working as a bullish sign.
The price traded very close to a new record high for 2024 last week, reaching a new 8-month high. The price then dropped quite hard as the US Dollar made a comeback towards the end of the week, but we now see the price rising from the support level confluent with the major quarter-number at $0.6750.
Bulls face an obstacle at the resistance level of $0.6790. If the price can trade above this and reach a new high above $0.6800, it has room to rise all the way to $0.6877. However this is unlikely to happen today as its probably going to be a quiet market due to the US public holiday today, but it might start today.
The Aussie is also getting a boost from comments by the Deputy Governor of the RBA to the effect that rate cuts will not be forthcoming over the near term, which puts the RBA on a divergent path to the US Federal Reserve.
I am ready to take a long trade from either a bullish bounce off $0.6751 or after two consecutive higher hourly closes above $0.6800 without either candlestick having a large upper wick.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD.
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