My previous signal on 19th September was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6877 or $0.6895.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6786, $0.6731, or $0.6693.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 19th September that the AUD/USD currency pair was looking even more bullish, and was likely to test the new resistance level at $0.6817, and this could be today’s pivotal point.
This was un unfortunate call as a long trade entry following that breakout probably did not produce much profit and might even have produced a loss as it turned out to be a swing high.
Nevertheless, the price is clearly in an upwards trend, it is just prone to pullbacks and the speed of the trend is quite slow, despite the risk-on atmosphere which should drive the price higher.
As we are seeing lots of retracements, it is probably a good idea now to look for a long trade following a bullish bounce off the nearest support level at $0.6786, should it set up later today.
Today’s RBA policy meeting had almost no effect on the Aussie at all. However, tomorrows release of Australian CPI (inflation) data is likely to be more consequential – if it falls by less than expected, the price should rise; more, then the price should fall.
Regarding the USD, there will be a release of CB Consumer Confidence data at 3pm London time. There will be a release of Australian CPI data at 2:30am.
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