My previous signal on 2nd September was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6709, $0.6726, or $0.6739.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6677 or $0.6660.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 2nd September that the AUD/USD currency pair was unlikely to get established above $0.6800, but I was looking for a long trade from either a bullish bounce off $0.6751. I was correct about $0.6800 holding but the price fell through $0.6751 and then later it operated as key resistance, which was a bearish sign.
There is no doubt that the technical picture has become considerably more bearish as stock markets sell off and money flows into safe havens like the US Dollar, and even more so, the Japanese Yen. The Australian Dollar is a key risk-aligned currency, so it tends to get hit hard during times like these, and today is no exception.
It is not likely that anything will happen today to change the market’s sentiment. There was a release earlier of Australian GDP data, but this came in exactly as forecasted so its unlikely to be having any effect on the Aussie right now.
Today I will look for short trades from any bearish reversals which may set up at key resistance levels.
Traders interested in shorting the AUD/USD currency pair today may also consider shorting the AUD/JPY currency cross, which is looking even more bearish.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm London time.
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