My previous BTC/USD signal on 11th September may have produced an excellent and nicely profitable long trade from the bullish bounce off the support level I identified at $55,724.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $58,254, $57,239, or $55,724.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $59,401 or $60,445.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast almost a week ago that Bitcoin was looking somewhat bearish but wasn’t really in focus and did not show much obvious opportunity. I did think that the support level at $55,724 looked strong so I saw a long trade from a bullish bounce there as a possibility. This was an excellent, accurate, and profitable call.
The technical picture now looks more bullish, as we have seen the price broadly rise over the past week or so. There are also more support levels near the current price than resistance levels. If the price clears the resistance at $59,401 it has plenty of room to rise before hitting the next resistance level.
The US Dollar is also likely to come under pressure as the Fed is expected to cut rates tomorrow by 50bps. However, as this is widely expected, the surprise might be more possible on the long USD side if the cut is only 25bps.
If we get two firmly bullish closes later today above $59,401 which are consecutively higher without significant upper wicks, a momentum trade long could be a good idea, but it will probably be wise not to stay too long in this trade as the price is likely to consolidate tomorrow ahead of the Fed release.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a releases of US CPI data at 1:30pm London time.
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