Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit of 59,790.
- Set a stop-loss at 53,400.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 56,000 and a take-profit at 54,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 59,000.
Bitcoin price rose for the third consecutive day as risk assets rebounded. The BTC/USD pair rose to the important resistance point at 57,000, a big jump from last Friday’s low of 52,563.
Bitcoin and stocks rebound
Bitcoin rose as investors moved back to risky assets. The Dow Jones index rose by 455 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices rose by over 1%. At the same time, the US dollar index rose by 0.40% while crude oil rebounded to $71.7.
This price action happened as investors continued to reflect on last Friday’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the economy added over 142k jobs while the unemployment rate slowed to 4.2%.
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The next important data to watch will come out on Tuesday when the US will publish the next consumer inflation data. Economists expect the data to reveal that the headline inflation retreated to 2.6% in August while the core CPI fell to 3.0%.
These numbers will confirm the view that the Federal Reserve will start to cut rates later this month. This explains why the US bond yields have pulled back, with the 10-year and 30-year falling to 3.7% and 4.0%, respectively.
Bitcoin also rose after some positive commentary. In an interview with CNBC, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, predicted that Bitcoin would continue rising in the long term. He expects it to reach over $1 million in the next decade.
In a separate note, Bernstein said that Bitcoin would rise to $90,000 if Donald Trump won the election and fall to $30k if he lost. The upcoming debate between Trump and Kamala Harris will provide more information about who will likely win the election.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The BTC/USD pair bottomed at 52,450 on Friday as most assets dropped after the US jobs numbers. It then bounced back to over 57,000 as most assets rebounded. Still, it remains below the 50-day moving average while the histogram and the two lines of the MACD have remained below the neutral level.
Therefore, there is a risk that the ongoing recovery is part of a dead cat bounce, a temporary rebound after an asset drops sharply. If this happens, Bitcoin may drop to $54,000 in the coming days. On the flip side, a move to the 50-day moving average at 59,800 cannot be ruled out.
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