Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 66,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 60,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 60,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 66,000.
Bitcoin price held steady overnight as investors assessed the impact of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 63,400, a few points below Monday’s low of 64,685.
Like other risky assets, Bitcoin is expected to benefit substantially from the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last week. It joined other central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB), South Africa Reserve Bank (SARB), and Swiss National Bank.
These cuts mean the world is slowly moving to an easy money period, where cash is cheap. Risky assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies do well in those periods as we saw during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Bitcoin has also benefited from the ongoing easy ETF inflows, which have signalled that institutional investors are still bullish on the coin. MicroStrategy, Blackrock, Citadel, and Millenium Management are some of the most notable institutions that have bought Bitcoin and ETFs.
All this is happening at a time when most Bitcoin holders have moved their coins into self-custody, as evidenced by the falling reserves in exchanges.
Bitcoin will likely have a minimal reaction after the Conference Board publishes the latest consumer confidence data. While this is a critical economic report, it will not change the Fed’s mind on cutting interest rates. Several Fed officials like Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee noted that the bank would continue cutting rates now that inflation is approaching the 2% target.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has drifted upwards in the past few days. It has jumped above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the MACD indicator has risen above the neutral point.
Most notably, the pair has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, a popular bullish sign. It has now settled near the neckline of this pattern.
At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a popular momentum indicator, has continued rising and has moved above the neutral point.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as long as it crosses Monday’s high of 64,685. If this happens, it will invalidate the double-top chart pattern that has been forming and raise the possibility of it retesting the key point at 70,000.
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