- The euro has rallied rather significantly against the Japanese yen during trading on Monday, which is interesting considering we've seen the Japanese yen lose strength against almost everything.
- With that being the case, I think we are starting to return to the carry trade situation where people were shorting the yen and buying pretty much anything that would give them some type of swap.
- Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan did tighten monetary policy recently, but it was a pittance.
The Japanese can only tighten so much due to the fact that there's so much debt in their economy. They could literally destroy the Japanese economy. So, with that, the dust has settled, and I suspect that we are going to continue to see the Japanese yen really take it on the chin against most currencies and the Euro won't be any different.
Technical Factors
The 200 day EMA sits right around the 164.25 level. And if we can break above that, then I think a lot of technical traders will look at that as a sign to have a go at this particular trade. You do get paid at the end of every day to own this position. So that makes sense as well. And with that being the case, I am looking for buying opportunities, not shorting opportunities. I think this is the way longer-term as well.
Top Forex Brokers
Underneath, I see quite a bit of support near the 160 yen level, and that has been backed up by trading over the last couple of weeks. So, I think you have a situation where short-term pullbacks will continue to attract buyers into this market, trying to take advantage of what could be a rather big move. The question of course is, will it ever pick up serious momentum? I don't know, but I think a grind to the upside makes more sense than not in this situation, as well as almost any other currency denominated in yen.
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