Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.3300.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.3100.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 1.3200 and a take-profit at 1.3100.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3300.
The GBP/USD pair made a strong bullish breakout ahead of a busy week in the market when the Fed and BoE will deliver their decisions. The US and UK statistics agencies will also publish important economic numbers in the next few days. It rose to a high of 1.3210, its highest level since September 6.
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Central Bank decisions and data
The GBP/USD pair continued rising as traders waited for the upcoming US retail sales data, which will provide more color about the state of the American consumer. Economists believe that the country’s sales dropped by 0.2% in August. However, Barclays analysts expect the figure to surprise to the upside.
The next important data will come out on Wednesday when the Office of National Statistics (ONS) publishes the latest inflation report from the UK. Economists expect the report to show that inflation remained slightly above the 2% target in August.
The icing on the cake of these numbers will be the Fed and the BoE decisions, which will set the tone on what to expect. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will deliver its first interest rate cut and then point to more cuts in the coming meetings.
A Fed cut will not catch traders by surprise since the bank has signaled that it is coming. What is still not clear is the size of the cut, with the odds of a normal 0.25% or a jumbo 0.50% being even.
The Fed decision will be followed by the next one by the Bank of England, which will conclude its meeting on Thursday. Odds are that the bank will leave interest rates unchanged at 0.25% and then resume cuts in its November meeting.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair has been in a strong bullish trend after bottoming at the psychologically important support level at 1.3000. It has remained above the 50-period moving average and is about to retest the important resistance point at 1.3238, its highest swing on September 6.
The Relative Strength Index and the MACD indicators have continued rising. Also, it rose above the Ichimoku Cloud while the Average Directional Index (ADX) jumped to 24. Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as bulls target the next level at 1.3267, its highest point on August 27.
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