- While we did break above the 1.3150 level, we ended up giving back the gains and have closed the market with essentially what looks like a shooting star.
- This suggests that the market is probably going to continue to struggle going higher.
And quite frankly, I think that makes quite a bit of sense considering that although the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates on September 18, the reality is that the Bank of England is probably going to be right there with them, as we have recently seen economic numbers slow down around the world. Although it is worth noting that both inflation numbers out of America this week have been a little bit stronger than anticipated.
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All of that being said, the technical analysis does suggest that we are in the midst of trying to form some type of bullish flag, and the measure move could be all the way up to the 1.39 level, but I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath for that due to the fact that it would require a market that is comfortable going long over the longer term.
If we were to break down:
On the other hand, if we were to break down from here, the 1.30 level would more likely than not be support, not only due to the fact that it was a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it's also where the 50-day EMA currently hangs about. In general, I think that the GBP/USD market continues to be very noisy, but I do think it favors the upside overall. However, I would not be somebody looking to hang on to trades for any significant amount of time because quite frankly, the volatility is probably only going to get worse from this point on.
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