Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3250.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3430.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Set a buy-stop at 1.3330 and a take-profit at 1.3400.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3250.
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose to its highest level in years and then retreated amid heightened geopolitical issues. It jumped to 1.3428, its highest swing since February 2022 and then pulled back to 1.3323.
Geopolitical issues rise
The GBP/USD pair declined as the US dollar index bounced back amid the ongoing geopolitical issues in Europe and the Middle East.
In a statement, Joe Biden warned that a full scale war in the Middle East was possible. He said that after an Israeli minister told the military to prepare for a ground invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile, in Europe, President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would opt for nuclear weapons if it was attacked by Western millitary equipment.
As a result, most assets retreated while the US dollar index rose by 50 basis points to $100.60. US equities dropped, with the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 indices falling by 272 and 267 points, respectively.
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The GBP/USD pair will react mildly to a set of US economic numbers to be released later today. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the final estimate of second quarter GDP data.
While this is an important report, its impact will be limited since the bureau has already released the first two estimates before. In most periods, these numbers tend to have a limited divergence.
The other data to watch will be the US durable goods orders numbers, which will provide more information about the economy. Also, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the latest weekly initial and continuing jobless claims numbers.
These numbers will come a week after the US and the UK published their interest rate decisions. The Fed decided to cut rates by 0.5% while the BoE opted to leave rates intact at 5%.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD pair soared to a high of 1.3428 on Wednesday and then pulled back to 1.3328. The initial level was notable because it coincided with the first resistance of the Woodie pivot points.
On the daily chart, it has formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. It also remains 2% above the 50-day moving average. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has pointed downwards even though it remains above the overbought level.
The CCI measures the difference between an asset’s price and its 20-day moving average, relative to the price’s deviation. Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will likely continue dropping as sellers attempt to retest the psychological point at 1.3250.
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