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Gold Forecast: Rallies with Interest Rate Cuts Ahead

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The gold market rallied again during the trading session on Friday as the market broke well above the $2,580 level.
  • All things being equal, the market is going to continue to be bullish and I think a short term pullback is more likely than not going to be a buying opportunity, perhaps all the way down to the $2,500 level.

The $2,530 level is an area that has offered a significant amount of resistance in the past, and as a result, it's likely that we could continue to see market memory come in and offer support there as well. At this point in time, it looks like gold's going to go looking to the $2,600 level, and if we can break above there, then it's likely that the market could go looking to the $3,000 level over the longer term.

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Expect Noise

I do expect a lot of volatility and there are a couple of things that you need to keep in mind before you just jump in with both feet. Next week features a central bank decision coming out of the Federal Reserve. This will have massive ramifications for this market, so you need to be very cautious. The market is likely to see a certain amount of profit taking ahead of that because they don't really know what the Federal Reserve is going to say in the press conference. True, we probably are going to see 25 basis points of interest rate cuts, but the real question will be, what does the press conference sound like? Does it look like the Federal Reserve is ready to become aggressively dovish? Because if they are, that will turbo boost gold. But what if they say something to the effect of, we are still concerned about inflation at this point and aren't necessarily ready to get aggressively dovish?

Gold Forecast Today 16/9: Interest Rate Cuts Ahead (graph)

If that ends up being the case, that could be detrimental for gold. I think a lot of traders will be somewhat nervous holding onto this through that interest rate decision. So, I do think you'll get an opportunity to buy on a dip.

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Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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