NASDAQ 100 Monthly Forecast: October 2024

• During the month of September, we have seen the NASDAQ 100 bounce around quite significantly.
• That being said, I believe this is a market that will remain very volatile, and you have to assume that we will bounce around quite drastically.
• The market has been dancing around the 20,000 level, which of course suggests that psychology comes back into play when it comes to the idea of this market going forward.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for NASDAQ 100 is quite bullish, although we may have to go sideways for a while. The 50 Week EMA underneath has offered quite a bit of support, and now that we have broken above the 20,000 level again, it’s possible that we could see this market continue to rise over the longer term. I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see the NASDAQ 100 continues to climb, mainly due to the fact that the Federal Reserve seems ready to start loosening monetary policy and supporting Wall Street yet again. Remember, the Federal Reserve has as its number one mandate to protect Wall Street. Officially, it has a dual mandate of keeping inflation low and employment elevated, but at the end of the day, what they say they do and what they’ve actually done for the last 16 years have been 2 totally different things.

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It is in this prism that I think the Federal Reserve will look at any selloff in the stock market as a reason to loosen monetary policy, because of what they refer to as the “wealth effect of Wall Street.” This gives cover to loosen monetary policy and protect the revolving door of Federal Reserve, FDIC, SEC, and other officials going back and forth through various hedge funds. The reality is that the stock market no longer reflects the overall economy, so even if we do see some type of massive selloff, the Federal Reserve will come in and pick the market up. In other words, you simply cannot short the NASDAQ 100 or anything else for more than a short-term trade. In other words, it remains a “buy on the dips” market over the longer term, mainly due to the fact that it is not an equal weighted stock market, and therefore you only need a handful of stocks to rally in order to see the index rise.

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