The NZD/USD has turned in tight sideways price movement the past two days as financial institutions await important U.S inflation data coming later today.
- The NZD/USD exchange rate is around the 0.61435 price as of this writing with typical fast changes been seen.
- However, speculators have also had to adjust to rather tight value realms since Monday because financial institutions are bracing for Consumer Price Index data from the U.S later today.
- The inflation outcome will shake the NZD/USD and Forex out of any doldrums.
- Traders should expect volatility developing before, during and in the immediate aftermath of the U.S data release.
The NZD/USD jumped towards the 0.62555 mark on Friday, after the U.S jobs numbers were reported. The reaction higher on Friday was caused by the weaker than anticipated hiring data which caused large players to rush into buying positions. However, the buying action could not be sustained; this because there is still no exact idea regarding what the U.S Federal Reserve will do next Wednesday on the 18th of September.
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Challenge to Highs and a Reversal Lower and Caution in the NZD/USD
The inability last Friday for the NZD/USD to remain at higher levels, and then its reversal lower to about the 0.61725 ratio reflected the price action seen in global Forex. Weaker USD centric price action has kept the USD within the lower boundaries of its value, but when looking at a mid-term chart it is clear financial institutions are still cautious about the next steps that will be taken regarding U.S interest rates. Uncertainty among traders has been highlighted by the move lower in the NZD/USD since Monday and its range around the 0.61300 to 0.61600. USD weakness has moderated in the broad Forex market the past couple of days.
Yes, the NZD/USD is still trading within the higher elements of its mid-term prices, but the lower price action the past week and a half since hitting a high of almost 0.63000 on the 29th of August, showcases that financial institutions may believe too much bullish action was seen. A 0.25% rate cut has certainly been traded into the NZD/USD, but the U.S Federal Reserve has sounded cautious about being too aggressive regarding interest rate cuts. The desire that many economic analysts are sounding about a 0.50% cut to the Federal Funds Rate may be falling on deaf ears.
NZD/USD Reaction to Come for Traders
Volatility should be expected later today in the NZD/USD. Risk management for smaller traders needs to be practiced. If the inflation report from the U.S comes in around expectations, this will set the table for tomorrow’s ECB rate announcement. While this is not directly related to the USD, if the European Central Bank cuts by only 0.25% tomorrow, this might be seen as a clue the U.S Fed will be cautious next Wednesday too.
- If the ECB cuts by 0.50%, this may be a sign the U.S central bank could be more aggressive.
- NZD/USD traders should be ready for fireworks over the next 48 hours.
NZD/USD Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 0.61490
Current Support: 0.61400
High Target: 0.62180
Low Target: 0.61290
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