The USD/INR remains within the higher elements of its long-term price; current values are bouncing up against crucial apexes and have shown signs of escalating.
- The USD/INR exchange rate remains a difficult currency pair for day traders to speculate on because of India’s government controls on Forex, yet the incremental rise higher remains technically attractive.
- At the time of this writing the USD/INR is near the 83.9775 ratio which is testing apex values.
- Yes, the USD/INR traded above the 84.0000 level on the 5th of August, but that occurred during a momentary burst of chaos in the global Forex market. The quick changing values between bid and ask are dangerous for day traders.
Importantly the current price the USD/INR is around a record high value when the outlier of August the 5th is put to the side. The ability of the USD/INR to rise in a steady manner should not be disregarded by traders who believe the currency pair must eventually begin to trade lower again. Certainly reversals downwards are happening and can be taken advantage of by speculators, but the constant movement higher in the USD/INR remains the key element of consideration for those trying to have an outlook regarding the mid-term.
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USD/INR Lack of Correlation to Broad Forex Market
The past few days of trading have seen the USD lose some ground to other major currencies, thus the apex values being displayed in the USD/INR should not be a surprise. However, up until Thursday of last week the USD had been rather weak against many other currencies, but this did not happen in a steady manner within the USD/INR. Instead the Indian Rupee has continued to display an erosion of value over the past six months.
Traders should understand the USD/INR is moving in its current direction because the Reserve Bank of India has clearly decided on using the weaker Indian Rupee as a tool. Speculators must be sure to eliminate any national bias they have when deciding to trade Indian Rupee. Being proud of your national identity is different than trading the USD/INR and betting consistently on the currency pair to reverse to lower levels. The USD/INR may look overbought, but the Reserve Bank of India seems to have other intentions.
Near-Term Consideration in the USD/INR
As the USD/INR flirts with record highs and sustains prices which are coming within sight of the 84.0000 level, traders need to be careful. The movement of the USD/INR has been slow moving, particularly for day traders who are hoping to get in and out of trades quickly.
- The currency pair continues to reverse lower and then spring upwards again.
- And for speculators interested in pursuing positions in the USD/INR that may be the important wagering clue.
- The opportunity for patient traders to wait for technical support levels to be hit and igniting a buying position may prove worthwhile.
- Traders who simply want to buy the USD/INR and look for upside may be proven correct, but the question is if the quick changing values via Forex fluctuations will allow a speculator without deep pockets to stay in a trade long enough to profit.
USD/INR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 83.9780
Current Support: 83.9450
High Target: 83.9990
Low Target: 83.9050
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