- On Monday, the Japanese yen declined to over 144.40 yen against the US dollar in thin trading, continuing losses incurred last week amid concerns that the Bank of Japan is in no hurry to raise interest rates.
- Last week, the yen lost more than 2% as the Bank of Japan kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.25% in a unanimous vote, in line with expectations.
- At the same time, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda acknowledged "some weakness" in the economy during his post-meeting press conference, a slightly more dovish tone than previous statements.
According to Forex trading, his comments weakened the prospects of a rate hike in October, although one is still expected in December. However, Ueda maintained his forecast that the economy is steadily progressing towards a modest recovery, affirming that the central bank "will continue to adjust the degree of easing" if its economic and price forecasts are realized.
Externally, the yen faced pressure from rising risk assets after the Federal Reserve's large interest rate cut boosted global economic expectations.
According to stock trading platforms, the Standard & Poor's 500 and Dow Jones rose to new record highs. According to performance, the Standard & Poor's 500 rose 0.3%. Also, the Dow Jones rose 0.1%, both hitting new record highs at the start of the week after last week's rally that was spurred by the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut in four years, which was set at 50 basis points.
Also, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Investors closely evaluated the comments of several policymakers to understand the rationale behind the Fed's large 50 basis point interest rate cut. Fed officials including Raphael Boucek, Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee have expressed support for the latest cut and indicated their preference for additional rate cuts in the coming months.
Among the stock performers, Intel shares jumped 3.4% after reports of a potential multi-billion-dollar investment from Apollo Global Management. Tesla shares rose 4.9% as investors looked ahead to the launch of its long-awaited robotaxi and upcoming third-quarter sales figures.
On the economic data front, concerns about economic growth persist, as US manufacturing data reached a 15-month low and Labor market indicators showed signs of weakness.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
My technical outlook for the USD/JPY pair remains unchanged. Despite its recent gains, the overall trend remains bearish, and the proximity to the psychological support level of 140.00 still confirms the bears' control of the trend. According to the daily chart attached, a reversal of the overall trend to bullish will not occur without moving towards resistance levels of 147.90 and 150.00, respectively. As mentioned earlier, the USD/JPY price will remain subject to signals from global central bank officials regarding the future of tightening or easing. Also, investor risk appetite, in addition to awaiting the US Federal Reserve's preferred US inflation reading at the end of the week.
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