- The USD/JPY pair rebounded in mid-week trading to reach the resistance level of 144.60, recovering from earlier losses that had taken it to the support level of 142.88.
- According to recent trades, the USD/JPY exchange rate has risen above the psychologically significant 140 level last week and may extend in the near term.
- According to analysts, although it is too early to say that the multi-week selling wave has ended.
- Overall, the next few forex trading sessions could be volatile with end-of-month and end-of-quarter flows dominating.
According to licensed trading platforms, the end of the quarter and month is approaching, which will require global portfolio managers to adjust recent developments in the foreign exchange market. The rebalancing could lead to significant volatility in the near term. Brad Bechtel, an analyst at Jefferies said, “We’re approaching the end of the quarter this week and that’s likely to start driving the FX market more strongly tomorrow morning in London and New York,”
The US dollar had declined against most of its G10 peers in September, but the bigger and more important story for end-of-month flows is the significant rally in global equity markets. Commenting on this, Robert Vollem, a market analyst at Reuters, says, "The turbulent third quarter for asset prices opens the door for significant rebalancing at the end of the quarter." Bechtel believes that the end of September and the third quarter of 2024 could be characterized by US dollar strength given the weakness seen in recent weeks. He stated, "I would be surprised if we ended up selling enough dollars at the end of the quarter to push us below the 100 level on the US Dollar Index, and generally, quarter-ends have been positive for the US dollar, so we're likely to return to above 101 towards 102."
The recovery in the US Dollar Index (DXY) - a measure of the overall performance of the US dollar - means that the USD/JPY pair may extend its current six-day appreciation trend. Looking ahead to October, the yen's recovery against the US dollar is not necessarily over. Also, the analyst believes that a move in the USD/JPY below 141.75 would put its lowest level since the beginning of the year at 139.58 into consideration, while a close above 145.55 would target September's high of 147.20.
The Japanese yen fell at the end of last week after the Bank of Japan appeared to waver in its commitment to further interest rate hikes and end its ultra-easy monetary policy. For its part, the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, and the guidance showed an upbeat outlook for the economy and a commitment to further rate hikes. However, “what is striking is the lack of explicit guidance in today’s statement. In July, it stated that the BOJ would continue to raise rates if inflation develops as expected. While the statement can still be read in this way, it is no longer explicit.” Added, “This confirms our view that the situation in Japan is not as clear-cut as the BOJ sometimes wants us to believe.”
The market reaction suggests that investors agree, believing that the BOJ may be softening its commitment to raising rates, which could deprive the yen of a major source of support. As a result, the Japanese currency fell against all of its G10 peers.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Despite the recent gains of the USD/JPY pair, the pair is still at the beginning of an upward trend-breaking phase. Moreover, this could succeed if it moves towards the resistance levels of 147.60 and 150.00, respectively. Conversely, and on the same timeframe, a move below the support level of 141.80 will be important for the continued strength of the bears' control over the trend. The USD/JPY price today will be influenced by the announcement of a package of important US economic releases as well as statements by a number of US Federal Reserve policymakers, led by Governor Jerome Powell.
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