The USD/MXN continues to see financial institutions buying the currency pair when support levels are challenged, this as nervous behavioral sentiment boils and a higher value range is maintained.
- The USD/MXN currency pair is trading near the 19.39615 ratio as of this morning.
- On Wednesday of last week the USD/MXN came within sight of the 19.05000 vicinity, but choppy trading followed and by the end of the week the currency pair had reestablished a bullish attitude situating its value within the higher levels of its mid-term technical stance.
- Behavioral sentiment in financial institutions continues to display nervousness which is likely due to the change in leadership about to take place in Mexico on the 1st of October.
Claudia Sheinbaum will take over the Presidency of the United Mexican States next Tuesday. While Sheinbaum may be well qualified for the position, financial institutions are nervous about the size of her Morena political party which will have a large majority and potentially be more autocratic. The USD/MXN was trading near 16.60000 in May of this year. While other major currencies have gained against the USD over the past few months, bearish sentiment in the USD/MXN has certainly not occurred.
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USD/MXN Bullish Perspectives and the Potential of Being Overbought
For a couple of years the Mexican Peso was one of the strongest currencies globally. The sudden reversal of fortune in the USD/MXN is a reflection of political nervousness about Mexico, but it also clearly is about economics and a rebalancing of current fiscal outlooks. While some may point to the price of Crude Oil also which has declined in value over the mid-term, the affect from the commodity losing value does not equate into the full story. It is a combination of causes which has created weakness in the Mexican Peso and some traders likely feel the USD/MXN has been overbought.
However, the 19.00000 level since August of this year has been a magnet, yes there has been trading lower, but the USD/MXN has stayed above this level rather demonstratively. The USD/MXN did touch a high of nearly 20.18400 on the 11th of September. Yes, the currency pair has sold off from those highs and shown an ability to sustain lower depths since the 12th of September, yet financial institutions still are exhibiting nervous. And this can be seen after the U.S Federal Reserve cut its interest rate last Wednesday.
Near-Term Volatility and Nervous Reactions in the USD/MXN
After the U.S Fed cut its interest rate by 0.50% and following the broad selloff of the USD in Forex, the USD/MXN actually began to incrementally traverse higher again. The currency pair went into the weekend near its highs for the past week.
- This morning’s opening has seen a sustained price range as traders apparently wait for the next big impetus.
- The U.S will release GDP numbers on Thursday and this will affect the USD/MXN.
- Until then the currency pair may remain choppy.
- And traders should keep in mind the inauguration of President Sheinbaum next Tuesday.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.40200
Current Support: 19.39300
High Target: 19.43650
Low Target: 19.34100
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