The USD/MXN is not only continuing to trade near the 20.00000 ratio, but it has shown the ability to traverse above the important psychological level the past week.
- Traders who believe the USD/MXN exchange rate is in overbought territory cannot be faulted.
- For nearly a two and a half year period the USD/MXN was consistently a bearish currency pair, this ended in late May of this year however.
- The nervous sentiment which has engulfed the USD/MXN is because financial institutions in Mexico and the U.S are looking upon the Mexican government as dangerously populist.
- The ruling Morena political party came out of the elections via early June results stronger than before.
USD/MXN trading since the results of the Mexico election have been almost a constant upwards track for speculators. Certainly reversals lower in the USD/MXN are still occurring. The low for the USD/MXN this past week hit the 19.67200 mark on Wednesday. Yet, the reversal higher from this low was strong and by Thursday a high of nearly 20.14700 was being tested briefly. The USD/MXN trades fast.
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Important Behavioral Sentiment Implications for USD/MXN Traders
The highs seen on Thursday of last week came within sight of values that were traded in early August when global markets produced chaos on the 5th. Since then the USD/MXN has been able to attain a lower track but a look at a one month chart shows the currency has steadily increased since the 20th of August. Trading since the middle of July has also shown a rather demonstrative move higher, the USD/MXN was near the 17.58400 level then.
The past two months of trading has produced bullish momentum in the USD/MXN which have made the Mexican Peso one of the worst performing currencies. While many other currencies have gotten stronger against the USD during this time, the USD/MXN has not correlated to the broad Forex market with any regularity. Yes, last Friday’s U.S jobs numbers provided volatility, and the USD/MXN doesn’t trade in a vacuum, but speculators of the currency pair need to remain aware that financial institutions are nervous about the Mexican Peso.
Short and Near-Term Outlook and Volatility for the USD/MXN
This week will be volatile in the broad Forex market and choppy conditions will be seen in the USD/MXN. The U.S will release important inflation data this coming Wednesday, and the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision this coming Thursday may create volatility.
- The USD/MXN having proven able to climb over the 20.00000 last week must be treated carefully.
- While it might be tempting to short the USD/MXN at the current price levels, traders should be extremely careful with risk management and look for quick hitting trades.
USD/MXN Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 19.97010
Current Support: 19.89100
High Target: 20.05900
Low Target: 19.78900
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