- The US dollar has pulled back a bit against the Mexican peso during the trading session on Friday, as the 20 MXN level continues to be a bit difficult.
- This of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a region that the markets will almost certainly be paying close attention to whether or not we can break out of that region.
We had previously tried to do so about a month ago, but got rebuked near the 20.25 MXN level, and therefore it makes a certain amount of sense that we continue to see a lot of questions asked of whether or not we can continue to go higher. If we can break above that candlestick, then the USD/MXN market could really take off to the upside, perhaps leading to a larger “buy-and-hold” type of scenario.
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US Economy and Mexican Politics
The US economy of course is front and center, and it looks like it that the inflation fight is starting to be won. That being said, people are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates multiple times, so might be a little bit counterintuitive to think that the US dollar might continue to rise against the Mexican peso. However, it’s worth noting that the United States is the biggest destination for Mexican exports in the world, so it certainly makes a massive difference as to whether or not the Mexican economy can thrive if the United States is struggling. I think this is part of what the market is trying to price into right now.
The Mexican economy aside, you also have to worry about the political situation in Mexico which people feel is a little less business friendly, and there are a lot of questions asked about what the current administration is doing. With that being said, it leads to the market probably going higher over the longer term, but the 20 MXN level is crucial to get above and stay above on a daily close. Until then, I think this is more or less a “buy on the dips” type of situation, with the 19 MXN level offering support, and of course the 50-Day EMA.
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