- During the analysis of exotic currency pairs around the world, I noticed that the US dollar initially fell against the Mexican peso, only to turn around and show signs of life again.
- Because of this, I think we have a situation where buyers continue to see a lot of reasons to get long of this market, and it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see that action, due to the fact that the market will continue to look at the US economy as a major driver of where things go next.
In general, the thing to think about in this market is that the currency pair moves in the exact opposite direction that you would think. This is because the US is the main landing spot for most Mexican exports, so money tends to move opposite of how you would think. In other words, you need to think of the United States as being Mexico’s biggest customer, and if we start to see the US economy slow down, it means that trouble is coming for the Mexican economy. It would be the same thing as owning a store, and having your biggest buyer suddenly lose his job. The money is not coming home at that point.
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Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this market is rather bullish, mainly due to the fact that the 50 Day EMA has offered support just a couple of weeks ago, right above the 19 MXN level, which in and of itself of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course an area that we have seen action at previously. Furthermore, we have rallied from there quite significantly, and then when you look at the daily action from Thursday, you can see that the sellers came in but were quickly rebuked near the 19.40 region.
Above current levels, we have the 20 MXN level, which is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area where we had seen quite a bit of resistance previously. If we can break above the 20.10 level, then the market could go much higher. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 19 MXN level, that would obviously be very bad for the US dollar but it may show more “risk on behavior” for the rest of the world.
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