Potential Signal:
- At this point in time, I don’t want to short this pair, due to the fact that it is oversold.
- While the RSI is not in the oversold position, a quick look at this chart tells you that we are a little overdone.
- If we can turn around a break above the 4.40 level on a daily close, then it’s likely that we could go looking to the 4.47 level, and I would have a stop loss at the 4.36 level for safety.
- The USD/MYR currency pair stands out as we continue to consolidate in bang around in what looks like a bit of a symmetrical triangle.
- This is very interesting to me, as we are so oversold one would have to think that something big is about to spring into action.
- If that’s going to be the case, I plan on being part of this trade, but as things stand right now, I think it’s very crucial to pay close attention to this pair, as well as many other exotic currency pairs, because it gives you an idea as to US dollar strength or weakness.
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The pair selling off during the trading session on Tuesday sent the US dollar down to the 4.34 level, and it certainly looks as if we are going to continue to see a lot of negative pressure. However, we have not broken through the symmetrical triangle, and therefore I think we’ve got a scenario where the situation continues to see a lot of back and forth, as the market is trying to do everything it can to build up and show so that we can get a bigger move.
Global Trade
Keep in mind that the US dollar is of course considered to be a “safety currency”, therefore I think we’ve got a situation where the market continues to see a lot of questions asked about the global economy, and therefore if we do get some type of panic, this is a pair that could turn around quite drastically. Although the Malaysian economy is very strong, the reality is that when people get concerned, money comes home. What I mean by this is that New York will start pulling US dollars out of Malaysia, and that will send this market higher. If we were to break above the 4.40 level, then I think it’s an interesting trade to take to the upside. On the other hand, if we break down below the 4.30 level, that could bode very poorly for the US dollar in general.
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