- Speculators of the USD/SGD who have been betting on reversals higher in the currency pair based on the notion that selling is overdone are likely paying a heavy penalty for trying to look for bullishness.
- The USD/SGD is now challenging values it last traversed in November of 2014, and financial institutions have clearly exhibited their beliefs the U.S Federal Reserve is going to be more dovish.
As of this writing the USD/SGD is near the 1.29435 ratio with its typical fact results on display. Tomorrow’s U.S Federal Reserve interest rate announcements will be must watch television. Leading the pack is the USD/SGD as it cascades lower and has left short-term technical traders looking for legitimate targets below without a clear roadmap.
Sustained Trading Below the 1.30000 Level in the USD/SGD
On Friday the 6th of September the USD/SGD briefly went below the 1.30000 mark before reversing upwards. However, the move higher after the lower depth was challenged never produced a violent surge upwards, clearly showing financial institutions were still leaning into their notions that further downside could be attained. This past Thursday the USD/SGD once again broke below the 1.30000 level, but this time the currency pair has shown the ability to sustain lower depths.
The U.S Federal Reserve will cut its Federal Funds Rate tomorrow. The U.S central bank has publicly stated it is time to start cutting interest rates. What the U.S central bank has not said is what the amount of the cut will be Wednesday. Many financial institutions seem to be wagering on a 0.50% cut, but these large traders may actually know that at a minimum a 0.25% cut is happening tomorrow, and that the Federal Reserve could present the potential for another cut in November. This means trading over the next day and a half will get very choppy in the USD/SGD and speculators will need all of their risk management.
Choppiness to Come for the USD/SGD
As the USD/SGD trades within depths that it last explored nearly ten years ago, traders should be careful to attempt standing in front of the lower trend with the belief that a sudden surge is going to develop higher. Also traders cannot count on a 0.25% rate cut from the Fed tomorrow delivering a sudden buying attack either, because financial institutions are also keenly aware of mid-term perspectives.
- Some big traders may have braced for a 0.25% cut tomorrow instead of a 0.50%, and simply believe that no matter what, the Fed will have to be dovish over the mid-term.
- And that notion could be the catalyst driving the USD/SGD lower.
- However, traders should be braced for strong volatility tomorrow and likely fast trading starting to be seen later today as positions are taken ahead of the U.S Federal Reserve’s FOMC Statement.
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Singapore Dollar Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 1.29560
Current Support: 1.29420
High Target: 1.29825
Low Target: 1.29275
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