Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 33.90.
- Set a stop-loss order below 33.75.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 34.15.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 34.34.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 34.35.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 33.80.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The Turkish Lira has traded against the dollar for the fourth consecutive week without significant changes. Amid reports of the Turkish authorities intervening in the market, the Turkish currency has stabilized within a narrow range without showing any significant impact after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision which cut rates by 50 basis points last week, or even after the Turkish Central Bank's decision to keep rates unchanged for the sixth time last Thursday at 50%.
In this regard, the Turkish Central Bank followed up its decision to maintain the interest rate with additional measures announced last Saturday. Meanwhile, the bank announced that the aim of these adjustments is to support the stability of the financial situation in the country by draining liquidity from the markets. Also, the measures included raising the required reserve that commercial banks must hold on to short-term Turkish lira deposits by 3% to 15%. Furthermore, the measures also included raising the required reserve on long-term lira deposits to 5% from previous levels of 8% and 10%. Likewise, the Turkish Central Bank raised the maximum limit for the commission rate applied to the conversion rate to the Turkish lira based on the conversion rate to the lira from 5% to 8%.
It is worth noting that forecasts by global financial institutions, as well as surveys published by the Turkish Central Bank, include new declines in the lira against the dollar, which may push the US currency to levels of 36 against the lira at least. Despite this, the lira's varied movements support reports indicating support for the lira by the Turkish authorities.
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TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
During early trading on Monday morning, the price of the US dollar against the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) rose slightly. Technically, the pair is moving within an upward price channel on the daily timeframe, as shown in the chart. However, these increases did not push the pair out of the narrow trading range that the pair has been trading in for several weeks. The price has stabilized within a horizontal range between the levels of 33.80 and 34.07, reflecting the divergence recorded by the pair, which is trading above the 50-moving average on the four-hour timeframe. Obviously, that’s representing a strong support level that managed to hold the pair back over the past week. At the same time, the pair is trading above the 50 and 200 moving averages on the daily timeframe, reflecting the overall upward trend.
The Turkish lira price forecast includes the pair's variability, especially if it stabilizes within the mentioned horizontal rectangle. Meanwhile, if the price rises above the rectangle's range, it may target resistance at 34.25 and 34.50 levels, respectively. Conversely, if the horizontal range is broken, the pair targets support levels at 33.70 and 33.50, respectively.
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