Bullish view
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6942.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6800.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Set a sell-stop at 0.6870 and a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6940.
The AUD/USD currency pair pulled back as the recent enthusiasm about China’s stimulus faded, and as the US dollar rebounded to $100.95. It dropped from this week’s high of 0.6942 to a low of 0.6855.
US jobs numbers ahead
The US dollar bounced back even after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the number of vacancies improved in August.
The JOLTs job openings rose from 7.71 million in July to over 8.04 million, higher than the median estimate of 7.64 million. This was the first time in three months that the number of openings increased.
ADP will then release the private sector payrolls data later on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the numbers to show that the number of payrolls increased from over 99k in September to 124k.
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These numbers will come two days before the US publishes the official jobs numbers, which will provide more color on the state of the economy. Most importantly, the data will be important because the Federal Reserve has started to focus on the labor market now that inflation is nearing the 2% target.
The other notable AUD/USD news to watch will be statements from several Federal Reserve officials like Michele Bowman and Thomas Barkin. These officials will likely provide more clues on what to expect in the next meetings.
In his statement on Monday, Jerome Powell, the Fed’s Chairman, hinted that the bank would take a more gradual pace when cutting rates. This means that the bank may cut rates once more this year and several times next year.
The AUD/USD pair has risen substantially in the past few weeks because of the ongoing hope that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be the final central bank to cut rates.
AUD/USD technical analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a strong bullish trend in the past few months because of the Fed and the RBA divergence. It soared to a multi-month high of 0.6942, its highest point since September 30th.
The pair remains above the important support level at 0.6870, its highest swing in December last year. It has formed a break and retest pattern, a popular sign of continuation. It has also remained above the 50-day and 25-day moving average.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair will likely resume the bullish trend as bulls target the year-to-date high of 0.6942.
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