Bearish View
- Sell the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6500.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6700.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish View
- Buy the AUD/USD pair and set a take-profit at 0.6700.
- Add a stop-loss at 0.6500.
The AUD/USD exchange rate continued slumping, hitting its lowest level in over 10 weeks as traders focused on next week’s US election. It has now dropped for five consecutive weeks and has moved below the important support at 0.6600.
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US Dollar Rally Continues
The AUD/USD pair continued its strong downtrend as the US dollar index jumped ahead of next week’s election. Most polls show that the outcome will be close even though Kamala Harris has a small edge nationally.
On the other hand, the prediction market estimates that Donald Trump will have a big victory because of the ongoing economic challenges in the economy.
Trump has campaigned on the need to weaken the currency and to have more power over what the Federal Reserve does. He also plans to impose more tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, a move that would lead to a stronger US dollar.
Therefore, there is a likelihood that the US dollar index will continue rising ahead of the US election.
The next key AUD/USD news will be the upcoming US consumer confidence, JOLTS job openings, and house price index data.
Economists expect the data to show that the US consumer confidence rose from 98.7 in September to 99.2 in October. A higher confidence is usually a sign that the economy is doing well.
The JOLTS job openings report is expected to come in at 7.92 million in September, down from 8.04 million a month earlier. These numbers will come ahead of the official US nonfarm payroll data.
The other important AUD/USD news will be the third quarter Australia inflation report scheduled on Wednesday. These numbers are expected to show that inflation slumped to 2.3% in Q3 from 3.8% in the previous quarter.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD exchange rate has continued its strong downward trend in the past few weeks as the US dollar index continued soaring. It has moved below the important psychological support at 0.6600, and the 50% retracement point at 0.6605.
The pair has dropped below the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), which have made a bearish crossover. Also, the two lines of the MACD indicator have moved below the zero line.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and other oscillators have pointed downwards. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling as sellers target the next psychological point at 0.6500.
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