My previous signal on 8th October was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6615 or $0.6663.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6512, $0.6465, or $0.6435.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 8th October that the AUD/USD currency pair was in a
clear and strong medium-term bearish trend. However, I thought that a small bullish rebound from $0.6731 was most likely to happen first and might provide a good long scalp. This was not a good call.
The technical picture has hardly changed over the past month, as the price has continued to decline. The price chart below shows that over the past 9 days, we have seen an orderly bearish trend, as evidenced by the symmetrical price channel shown in the chart below. The channel suggests that the downwards movement will persist, but it should be noted that we are approaching the big round number at $0.6500 and a cluster of support levels which might halt the decline, even if only temporarily.
The Forex market is dominated by relative strength in the US Dollar, which might flatten out over the coming days as the market waits to see who wins the US Presidential and Congressional elections next Tuesday. If Trump wins the Presidency, it is likely to be positive for the US Dollar, and if Republicans also win control of the Senate, it will be even more positive. The converse is also obviously the case.
I doubt there will be any good opportunities in this currency pair today, except maybe a scalp from a reversal at either trend line of the price channel.
Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 12:15pm and Advance GDP data at 12:30pm. There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding the AUD.
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