My previous signal on 24th September was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short trade entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6743 or $0.6786.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long trade entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6693 or $0.6601.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous AUD/USD forecast on 24th September that the AUD/USD currency pair was in a slow bullish trend, so I was looking for a long trade. That was a good call, as the price rose strongly over the day.
The technical picture is now quite different – there is a clear and strong medium-term bearish trend, evidenced in the price chart below by the linear regression analysis which I have placed over the downwards leg. This shows it is orderly and therefore more likely to hold.
The price is currently threatening to break down below the channel and the key support level at $0.6731. If it does, this will be a very bearish move, but I think a small bullish rebound from this price area is most likely to happen first. This is because the US Dollar Index is failing to rise higher above key resistance.
Scalpers may suit a long trade here, but the longer-term trade is likely to be a short from a key resistance level which might set up later.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today regarding either the AUD or the USD.
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